(full story here for those of you who haven’t heard the news yet. – http://www.acigarsmoker.com/20.....moker-com/).

He touches on the idea that where you are and who you’re with may be as important as the cigar that you’re smoking.

The question then becomes, how do cigar manufacturers respond to the various “cigar jobs” that are out there, to make the different experiences (breakfast cigar, cigar on the deck, cigar at the upscale, swanky smoking lounge), as enjoyable as possible.

His article is definitely a good read: http://www.cigaraficionado.com/blogs/show/id/16237

What I’m discounting is the way that they attempt to infer causality (I’m reading into the comment of: “fewer people are taking the time.”)

- Cigar costs are rising.
- Economic times are tough.
- Regulation limits where we can smoke.
- Traditional cigar sales are off, while mini cigar sales are up.

THEREFORE
Consumers of large cigars must be switching their behavior to smoke more small cigars.

My premis is that it simply doesn’t happen that way.

It is extremely likely that there is a group of cigar smokers who used to smoke traditional large cigars that have given it up because of the reasons state, and switched to miniature cigars.  

But to put forth the findings in a way that states that it is at the core of traditional cigar sales going down, and miniature cigar sales increasing is a huge leap that is not grounded in any kind of observation of actual consumption/usage.

Even if the connection of the two data points is not what the author was trying to convey (maybe I’m reading between the lines too much), extreme care must be taken by cigar industry insiders who read an article like this and try to plan their next move.

Yes, the “job” YOU (and me too, for that matter) hire a cigar to do is significantly different than what you hire a cigarillo or (yuck) a cigarette to do – and I do agree that it can quickly become a slippery slope when manufacturers/marketers/CEOs take an article like that either (a) out of context or (b) to the next level and make rash decisions based on partial information.  

That said – depending on the type of smoker you are referring to they may be easily influenced to change to one of the other types of products.  From what I read The Economist is making two main points - 1 – Smoking bans in pubs have reduced the number of people who would enjoy a cigar in that atmosphere AND2 – Economic turns impact buying (maybe SPENDING is the better term) decisions of people.  While I get the cost factor of #2, I think only those that are hiring a cigar for a different purpose than, for instance, I do would be swayed by the cost. I may purchase them less often if I had to, but would never make a switch on that alone.As far as #1 goes I think that goes without saying that if you cannot sit and enjoy a cigar in the manner it should be smoked, in my own opinion at least, (for many of the wonderful reasons you stated) that this WOULD impact some consumers choice on what to smoke. If the person does it more for the social aspect and now their friends who would previously be smoking cigarillos or other with them now step outside for 5 minutes at a time some people may be swayed to change their purchase habits. Personally this would not be the drive for me, but the “job” I hire a cigar to do may be (and most likely is) different than others.All this said – I VERY MUCH agree with your thinking and logic – not to mention the Jobs-To-Be-Done theory as laid out in your post – - – I just think your discounted the points in other article a bit quick.

If you want more info on the Jobs-To-Be-Done Framework, there’s a great internet radio episode that just came out this week on the topic.  Check it out here:  http://bit.ly/tARmkC